Looking to wrap up a series sweep on Thursday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers (15-11, 1st in NL West) meet the Washington Nationals (10-13, 4th in the NL East) at Nationals Park, Washington, DC.
Right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-1) is expected to command the hill for the visitors, whilst the Nats have gone for left hander MacKenzie Gore (2-1) as their starting pitcher. The game will get underway from 4:05 p.m. ET tonight.
Bet Rivers has Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers listed as -195 favorites on the moneyline, whilst they are -1.5 run line favorites (-114). The run total is currently set at O/U 8. Let’s get into our game analysis, followed by our best bet below!
Last Time Out
LA’s bats were singing loudly on Wednesday night as they scored 11 against the Nats to win game two of the three-match series. Ohtani starred as he had three doubles, whilst Andy Pages hit a homer in the Dodgers’ convincing 11-2 triumph. Rookie pitcher Landon Knack found his first win in the majors, allowing two runs from six innings.
That followed up a series-opening 4-1 victory on Tuesday in which Ohtani also impressed. The 29-year-old hit his sixth home run of the season in that one, reaching 450 feet in what was one of the hardest hits in Dodgers history. LA’s road record on the season now stands at 6-3, and they have won their last three straight overall.
Meanwhile, the Nationals will be hoping to avoid a third successive loss tonight and avoid being swept by the Dodgers here. Starting pitcher Jake Irvin struggled to contain LA’s offense last night, allowing six runs on 12 hits over 4 ⅔ innings. That means their home record this season now sits at 4-7.
Despite losing their last two back-to-back, Washington had secured a 2-1 series win over the Houston Astros last Sunday. That culminated with a 6-0 shutout triumph at Nationals Park as Luis Garcia Jr. had three singles and two RBI. The Nationals will be hoping their offense can get back on track here after scoring just three runs over their last two outings.
Probable Pitchers
Yamamoto will toe the rubber this evening for the visitors. In his last start, he allowed four runs on seven hits from six innings at an ERA of 4.50 as the Dodgers lost 9-4 against the New York Mets. Overall this season, the Japanese pitcher has given up 12 runs in 22 innings. His ERA stands at 4.50, and he has a WHIP of 1.14 with 30 strikeouts. Los Angeles’ bullpen has underperformed this season as they rank just 19th in ERA (4.07). However, their WHIP of 1.14 is the sixth-best across the league.
The Nationals will be countering with Gore as he bids for his third win of the campaign. However, he will need to bounce back after overseeing a 5-3 home loss to the Houston Astros last week in which he allowed three runs on seven hits in four innings. Nevertheless, Gore has been fairly solid thus far, allowing only eight runs in 20 innings at an ERA of 3.60, and a WHIP of 1.35 with 27 strikeouts. Washington’s bullpen has struggled with an ERA of 3.92 (16th), whilst they have the joint-worst WHIP in the MLB at 1.57.
Betting Trends & Stats
It is the Dodgers’ hitting that has been the most impressive this season as they are hitting at .268 (second-highest in MLB). They have scored the second-most runs across the league too (139), whilst they rank 2nd in OBP (.350), 3rd in SLG (.434) and 2nd in OPS (.784).
As for tonight’s hosts, they have been pretty poor on offense overall. They are hitting at .232 (22nd), and have scored the third-lowest runs across the majors (83), averaging just 3.6 runs per game. They rank 27th for RBI (80), 17th in OBP (.313), 21st in SLG (.370) and 20th in OPS (.683).
The Dodgers have a run line record of only 12-14-0 overall, being listed as favorites for every matchup. However, they have been better at covering the run line on the road with a record of 5-3-0.
Having the sixth-best run line record in the MLB, the Nats have been solid against the spread (ATS) so far with a record of 13-10-0. However, their home run line record stands at just 4-7-0, whilst they are 4-6-0 ATS as home underdogs.
Key Players
Ohtani is the star man of the MLB, and he leads the league in OPS (1.128), batting average (.371) and slugging .695. The Japanese star has scored the fifth-most runs in the majors too (22). The Nats will also have to try and limit the quality of Mookie Betts who has scored the most runs in the MLB (26). He also ranks seventh in RBI (21), and has the best OBP in the league to boot (.468).
Washington’s best hitter in 2024 has been CJ Abrams who has scored a team-high 15 runs and six homers. He ranks second in batting average, hitting at .305, whilst he leads the team in SLG (.646), RBI (12) and OPS (1.013). Garcia Jr. has been solid, leading the team in batting average at .314.
Best Bet
Having by far the best batting lineup in this one, the Dodgers should feel confident about sealing a 3-0 series win. Gore struggled up against a weaker offensive unit in the Astros in his last game, and LA’s bats have been fruitful of late, scoring 25 runs over their last three. That means that their hot streak on offense should continue.
Although Yanamoto hasn’t been great so far, he will be going up against a much weaker hitting team in Washington tonight compared to the Mets loss last week. He should fare much better at containing the Nats hitters, especially as Washington have scored only 9 runs over their past three games.
The moneyline isn’t offering too much value on a Dodgers win tonight at -195. However, we expect Gore to give up plenty of runs against an elite batting unit, meaning we like the value on the Dodgers run line.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-114 with Bet Rivers)
