It’s elimination time in the NBA play-in tournament, and basketball fans across the world will be anticipating the playoffs that are just around the corner. First up, though, the eight playoff teams from each conference need to be determined.
The final spot in the East is up for grabs tonight as the Chicago Bulls (39-43) go up against the Miami Heat (46-36) at 7:00 p.m. ET from Kaseya Center, Miami. The winner of tonight’s matchup will earn the No. 8 seed and will face the one-seeded Boston Celtics in the playoffs.
Despite losing star player Jimmy Butler against the Philadelphia 76ers, the Heat have been listed as 2-point favorites with Points Bet. The oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring encounter as the game total is currently set at O/U 205.5 (-110). It’s do or die for Miami and Chicago tonight so let’s get into our game analysis for the gigantic matchup!
Last Time Out
Finishing as the 9-seed in the East, the Bulls had to play against the ten-seeded Atlanta Hawks in their first play-in game of the season on Wednesday. However, they managed to cruise to victory after a game-high 42 points from Coby White ensured a 15-point triumph. Center Nikola Vucevic also impressed with a double-double of 24 points and 12 rebounds, whilst forward DeMar DeRozan recorded 22 points as well.
Chicago finished with the seventh-best road record in the Eastern Conference (19-22), whilst they went 5-5 on the road to close out the regular season, picking up impressive wins over the likes of the Golden State Warriors, the Indiana Pacers and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Heat get another shot at reaching the postseason tonight as they did last year in the play-in tournament. Miami narrowly lost 105-104 to the Sixers and Joel Embiid on Wednesday night, with Tyler Herro’s 25-point game not being enough to secure their place in the playoffs just yet.
That has set them up with a clash against the Bulls here, but Miami lost their star in Butler against Philly. Bam Adebayo will need to carry the Heat into the playoffs, however, he only managed an underwhelming 10 points against the 76ers. Home-court advantage could have a big say for Miami, but they were inconsistent on their own court to end the regular season, going 5-5 over their last ten.
Injuries & Team News
Some news in favor of the Heat, nevertheless, comes in the fact that Bulls guard Alex Caruso is doubtful due to an ankle injury. He got hurt against the Hawks and his ankle did swell up. However, recent reports have stated that the swelling has reduced, meaning he has a chance at featuring.
Chicago has quite the list of players on its injury report, and they will be without Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Lonzo Ball, Julian Phillips and Onuralp Bitim. Ayo Dosunmu (quad) and Andre Drummond (ankle) are both questionable as well.
“Playoff Jimmy” has officially been ruled out of the matchup for the Heat after suffering a sprained MCL in his right knee. It is a bitter blow to Miami’s chances as it was Butler who carried them through the playoffs last season. Terry Rozier (neck) will also remain sidelined alongside Josh Richardson. Duncan Robinson (back) is listed as probable, but didn’t play against the Sixers earlier in the week.
Head-to-Head
After edging a 118-116 win over Chicago in the most recent meeting back in December, the Heat will be hoping to replicate that tonight. However, that was with the likes of Butler and Kyle Lowry out on the court. The two teams split the overall season series 2-2, also splitting the two games in Florida 1-1.
Betting Trends & Stats
Both the Bulls and the Heat have been fairly labored on offense over the course of the season, ranking in the bottom ten for points per game (ppg). Chicago averaged just 112.3 ppg during the regular season, and Miami were even worse at 110.1 ppg. The Bulls ranked 18th in the NBA in field goal efficiency, whilst the Heat ranked 22nd. Nevertheless, Chicago have started to find their rhythm to end the campaign, averaging 124.6 ppg over their last five games.
Defensively, it is Miami who have fared much better. They ranked third in ppg allowed across the league (108.4), whilst Chicago were 16th (113.7). Erik Spoelstra’s side have been even better on defense of late too, giving up just 106.6 ppg over their last five. Meanwhile, the Bulls have leaked a lot of points recently, allowing 119.2 ppg from their past five games.
When looking at the betting trends, Billy Donovan’s men have been above average against the spread (ATS) this season, sporting a record of 42-40-1. They have been even better ATS on the road, going 23-18-0, whilst they have covered in 53.3% of games as road underdogs.
As for the Heat, their ATS record is very similar to the Bulls at 41-40-2. However, they have struggled to cover the spread when playing at home, going 16-25-0. Nevertheless, they have been better ATS when listed as favorites at Kaseya Center with a record of 15-16-0.
Key Players
If White can carry on the sort of performance he displayed against the Hawks on Wednesday, Miami are in for a very difficult matchup. He’s averaging a respectable 19.1 ppg on the season, also putting up 20+ points in each of his last three games. DeRozan ranks inside the top 20 across the NBA with 24.0 ppg, and also leads the team in average assists (5.3).
Leading the team in average points (20.8), assists (5.0) and steals (1.3), Butler will, of course, be a massive loss for Miami. The Heat will need Herro (20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists) to deliver if they are to win, whilst Adebayo - who leads the team in average rebounds (10.4) and blocks (0.9) - will be crucial as well, and will need to get the better of Chicago center Vucevic.
Best Bet
It was a bit of a surprise to see that the Heat were still listed as favorites despite losing Butler. Although the Bulls may be without Caruso, they still have plenty of other offensive talent in DeRozan and White to score plenty of points, and they have been finding their groove of late.
It’s hard to see where Miami will be able to find enough points tonight, especially with Adebayo failing to hit 20 points across any of his last five games. Herro will need to step up for Miami, but he doesn’t have enough to pull them through this game. We’re expecting a Bulls win which is offering good value at +110. However, take the points for more security.
Chicago Bulls +2 (-110 with Points Bet)
