It’s game three from 5:30 p.m. ET tonight between the Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) and the Indiana Pacers (47-35) as the first-round series between the two Eastern Conference teams heads to Gainbridge FieldHouse, Indianapolis.
The series is currently tied at 1-1 after the Pacers bounced back from an opening game 109-94 loss with a 125-108 victory on Tuesday. The Bucks are expected to be without star man Giannis Antetokounmpo once again, meaning they are currently listed as 6-point underdogs with Points Bet (-110).
Those who are wanting to wager on the game total will like to know that the line is set at O/U 223 (-110). The oddsmakers are expecting Indiana to take the lead in the series tonight since they are -240 moneyline favorites. Don’t know what to bet on this evening? Take a look at our best bet below!
Last Time Out
Milwaukee clearly missed their “Greek Freak” earlier this week as they succumbed to a 125-108 loss at Fiserv Forum, failing to take a 2-0 lead before heading out on the road here. Despite a team-high, 34-point game from guard Damian Lillard, the Bucks failed to eclipse 110 points in what was an underwhelming offensive display - a worrying trend for them as they closed out the regular season, too.
Still, even without Giannis in game one, head coach Doc Rivers was able to lead his side to a 109-94 triumph, courtesy of a 35-point game from Lillard. The former Portland Trail Blazer has been carrying Milwaukee over the first two games, but they’ll need a much-improved defensive display tonight compared to game two if they are to take a series lead.
Indiana’s star point guard Tyrese Haliburton struggled to score in game one, shooting four of seven from the field en route to putting up nine points. Just three Pacers managed to hit double figures last Sunday as the Bucks defense finally started to show.
However, Indiana had no problems on offense during game two as a 37-point game from forward Pascal Siakam led the Pacers to a series-tieing victory. Haliburton recorded just 12 points, but supplied 12 assists in what was a solid playmaking performance. Milwaukee’s defensive woes returned last time out, and they could struggle again as they head out on the road here.
Injuries & Team News
Although Antetokounmpo has not been officially ruled out of the game, he is still listed as doubtful and is very unlikely to take the court tonight. He hasn’t featured since April 10 against the Boston Celtics, and the Bucks have struggled offensively without him.
Further adding to Milwaukee’s woes, they also have Khris Middleton (ankle) and Chris Livingston (illness) both on the injury report. The former put up 23 points in game one, and is questionable for this one, whilst the latter has been listed as doubtful.
As for the hosts, they are pretty healthy heading into the matchup. They only have backup guard Bennedict Mathurin listed on the injury report, but he will definitely be out after undergoing shoulder surgery.
Head-to-Head
Having won five of seven games up against the Bucks so far this season, it’s not much of a surprise to see the Pacers listed as the favorites tonight. Indiana are also 2-0 at home against Milwaukee this season, securing a 142-130 win in their most recent meeting in Indianapolis. However, Rick Carlisle’s team have given up plenty of points to the Bucks, allowing 120.4 ppg against them in 2023/24.
The Pacers also went 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over their seven clashes with the Bucks this season. Defensive fragility on both teams has resulted in the Over cashing in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two franchises. The Bucks have allowed 123.3 ppg over their last seven matchups against Indiana.
Betting Trends & Stats
Over the past five games without Giannis, the Bucks are averaging just 105.8 points per game (ppg) on offense. That is way below their regular season average of 119.0 ppg (fourth-highest in NBA). They have hit over 110 points just once over the last five as well, failing to do so in both games against Indiana. Defensively, Milwaukee have given up 111.2 ppg over their last five.
Those offensive issues are particularly worrying considering the Pacers have struggled defensively thus far. They allowed the fourth-most ppg during the regular season (120.2). However, they have been slightly better of late, giving up 116.8 ppg over their last five outings. Indiana has scored 127.2 ppg over that period as well, and it looks like Milwaukee may struggle to contain them again here, like they have done all term.
Throughout the campaign, the road team has struggled ATS. They have the sixth-worst ATS record in the league (36-47-1), also going 7-9-0 as underdogs. The Bucks also have the fourth-worst ATS record on the road too at 16-24-0, whilst they have the worst ATS record across the entire NBA when playing as road underdogs (3-8-0), with an appalling -11.3 point differential.
Conversely, Indiana has performed excellently ATS, boasting the sixth-best record overall in the NBA (45-37-3). They have covered marginally better when playing on their own court too with an ATS record of 22-17-2. However, they are just 14-14-1 when listed as favorites at Gainbridge FieldHouse.
Key Players
Lillard has stepped up during the postseason for the Bucks thus far, putting up 34 and 35 points in the two games against the Pacers. With them expected to be without Giannis again, he will be carrying the offense once more. Milwaukee will also be sweating over the fitness of Middleton as his potential absence would be another big blow offensively. He has averaged 19.0 ppg over the first two playoff meetings.
Haliburton hasn’t got going with his shooting against the Bucks thus far, but he did perform better last time out as he sank three of his seven three-point attempts. Siakam will be the main man to stop for Milwaukee after recording 36 and 37 points over the first two games of the series.
Best Bet
Home-court advantage for the Pacers means they are expected to take the lead in the series here. Even if somehow Giannis is able to play, he will be nowhere near ready to play to his full capabilities. Those injury woes have been accentuated by the fact that Middleton is banged up as well.
The Pacers started to get into a rhythm in game two on offense, and that should have alleviated their postseason nerves. Siakam is hot right now, and it’s difficult to see how the Bucks will be able to stop him.
Milwaukee are out of form and without their best player. Their offense has been struggling and Indiana’s is starting to warm up. This should be a comfortable win for the Pacers tonight so back them to cover the 6-point spread.
Indiana Pacers -6 (-110 with Points Bet)
