We’re getting into the thick of the NBA playoff action this weekend, and reigning champions the Denver Nuggets host the 3-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves as the Western Conference semifinals get underway on Saturday, May 4 from Ball Arena, Denver.
All eyes will be watching the first conference semifinals of the 2024 postseason in what is set to be a thrilling contest between two top contenders who fought fiercely in the West throughout the regular season. Can the Nuggets take the next step as they bid to retain their crown? Or will star player Anthony Edwards lead the charge for the Wolves?
BetMGM currently has Denver listed as 4.5-point favorites for the matchup, priced at -210 on the moneyline. The game total is set at O/U 209.5. It’s time to get into our game breakdown followed by our best bet!
Last Time Out
Minnesota cruised into the semifinals on Sunday after securing a dominating 4-0 series sweep against the 6-seeded Phoenix Suns - their first series win in the playoffs in 20 years and maiden sweep. The Wolves looked in control across all four matchups, with their smallest winning margin standing at six, and their largest being 25. Their ability to make rebounds against Phoenix (46.3 per game) made the difference.
A team-high 40 points from Edwards in game four aided the TWolves to their 122-116 victory last Sunday, ensuring that they overcame a stunning 49-point game from Suns point guard Devin Booker. They also had to produce a comeback after trailing 61-56 at the half. Chris Finch’s team is certainly deserving of reaching this stage of the playoffs, and they will provide a stern test for Denver.
The 2-seeded Nuggets needed an extra game to get past the Los Angeles Lakers in their first-round series, but they still managed to get past them relatively comfortably with a 4-1 series triumph. Nikola Jokic and Co. surged into a 3-0 lead before losing 119-108 in the Golden State in game four.
Nevertheless, they sealed their spot in the semifinals on Monday with a narrow 108-106 win back in Colorado. Jamal Murray's 32-point performance played a big role in the Nuggets' win, while Jokic's double-double of 25 points and 20 rebounds was also significant. Minnesota center Rudy Gobert is set for a tough matchup against the two-time MVP.
Injuries & Team News
Both teams are looking pretty healthy on the injury report ahead of game one. The road team saw head coach Finch suffer a ruptured patellar tendon in game four against the Suns following a collision with guard Mike Conley, but he is expected to be in attendance on Saturday.
The hosts will still be without Vlatko Cancar (knee) and Collin Gillespie (knee) for this matchup. The pair are continuing to recover from long-term injury issues.
Head-to-Head
The Timberwolves and the Nuggets split their regular season series 2-2, with each team taking a win both at home and out on the road. Denver sealed a 116-107 victory at Ball Arena in the most recent meeting earlier this month, with Jokic putting up a game-high 41 points.
After the Nuggets defeated the Wolves in the first round of last season's playoffs, earning a 4-1 series win, Minnesota will be desperate for revenge. They’ll feel more prepared this time around, but will need to try and contain an excellent Denver offense.
Betting Trends & Stats
Leading the postseason in points per game (ppg) with 118.3, the Wolves’ offense was hot against the Suns. They have been the third-best shooters from the field as well, boasting a 47.7% field goal efficiency. However, their defense did face some problems up against strong shooters in Booker and Kevin Durant. Minnesota have allowed the sixth-highest field goal efficiency during the playoffs thus far (46.5%).
It will be a tough night on defense for the visitors as they face an affluent Denver offense led by Jokic and Murray. The Nuggets had the fourth-best field goal efficiency across the NBA during the regular season (49.6%). Still, Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will take some encouragement in the fact that the Nuggets have allowed the highest field goal efficiency throughout the playoffs so far (49.2%).
The Wolves have been solid, going 44-40-2 against the spread (ATS). They have also covered better on the road, with an ATS record of 24-19-0. Minnesota is 10-9-0 ATS as road underdogs and 14-9-0 as overall dogs (second-best in NBA).
Meanwhile, the home team has struggled against the spread, going 40-45-2. They have covered better on their own court, nevertheless, going 22-21-1 ATS. Denver has struggled to cover as overall favorites with an ATS record of 34-40-2.
Key Players
Young prodigy Edwards averaged 26.0 ppg against the Nuggets during their season series, and he has been the star for the Timberwolves during the postseason, averaging 31.0 ppg. The 22-year-old will be keen to produce again on the big stage and against the current champs.
Despite Minnesota having the best defense during the regular season, allowing just 106.5 ppg, they still failed to contain Jokic during their series. He averaged 33.3 ppg during the regular season series, and he is averaging 28.2 ppg through five playoff games thus far. The Serbian is also averaging the most rebounds throughout the postseason (16.2).
Best Bet
Denver wasn’t as convincing against the Lakers as many expected, and LA managed to keep things close for the most part, despite losing the series 4-1. As for the Wolves, they impressed both offensively and defensively against the Suns, and their strong ability to make rebounds could make the difference again in this one. That’s where Jokic could make the difference, however.
Minnesota had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season, and their offense looked hot against Phoenix. Even if they can’t find the win in game one, we expect them to keep things close and cover the 4.5-point spread. Take the points.
